H HOUSE STRATEGIES GROUP
Performance Analytics · Deep Dive

Performance Analytics · The complete picture

Every way to measure a $10.7 billion pool — and what each one hides.

"Performance" is not one number. For a public fixed-income pool it is a dozen-plus distinct measurements — yield, total return, duration, mark-to-market, risk-adjusted, peer-relative. Here is every lens the data supports, every one it doesn't, and why the difference matters.

The complete metric catalog

Forty-one measurements, mapped to the data.

Every performance, risk, liquidity, credit, and income metric used to evaluate a pool like this — with Alameda's actual value where the public data allows, and an honest flag where it doesn't. The gaps are not ours; they are what the County's reporting omits.

Data?MetricWhat it capturesAlameda
Data supports it — value shown Estimable / partial Needs holdings- or monthly-level data the County doesn't publish

Lens 1 · Return, five ways

The same pool, five different "returns."

Book yield, yield-to-maturity at market, the cash-basis effective rate of return, and the stated benchmark all describe the same portfolio — and diverge by more than a full point in places. Which one a reader sees shapes the entire story.

Reported return measures over time

Fiscal year-end. All in %. The County leads with book yield; total return — the economic figure — is not published.


Lens 2 · Book vs. market — what book yield hides

For three straight years, the pool was underwater on a mark-to-market basis.

Subtracting book value from market value reveals the unrealized gain or loss the book-yield report never shows. As rates spiked, the pool's market value fell $204M, $235M, and $109M below cost in FY2022–FY2024 — an economic reality invisible in a 3–4% book yield. It has since recovered to a small gain.

Unrealized gain / (loss) and NAV ratio

Bars: market value minus book value ($M). Line: market ÷ book (a "price" of the pool).

Why this is the core finding

The pieces are reported. The combination — total return — is not.

To its credit, the County reports unrealized gain/loss and NAV. But it never combines price change with income into a total return. Book yield read a placid 3–4% while the pool's NAV ratio sat at 0.976 in FY2022–23 — worth ~2.4% less than its carrying value. Total return reconciles the two; no peer pool publishes it.

A reported total return would have shown the FY2022–23 dip and the recovery. Book yield alone showed neither.


Lens 3 · Benchmark-relative

Excess return — book yield vs. the County's benchmark.

The County's benchmark variance was positive for three years, then −54 and −84 basis points in FY2023–FY2024. The monthly report keeps plotting book yield against ICE BofA indices — but it compares book yield, not total return, and against Treasury indices that don't match the holdings. A proper evaluation re-runs this on a total-return basis against a duration-matched index.

Reported excess return vs. the stated benchmark

Book yield minus the stated benchmark, basis points (FY2020–FY2024 shown).


Lens 4 · Risk & risk-adjusted return

The most duration of any large CA county pool — for a middle-of-the-pack yield.

Reward should be judged against risk. Alameda carries the longest weighted-average maturity of its cohort (842 days) yet earns less book yield than peers running a third of that duration. Yield-per-year-of-duration — return per unit of rate risk — has fallen by half since FY2023.

The journey out the curve

Each point is a fiscal year: duration (WAM, days) vs. book yield. The path shows the pool extending maturity as it chased yield.

Yield per year of duration

Book yield ÷ WAM-in-years — return earned per unit of interest-rate risk.


Lens 5 · Interest-rate sensitivity, liquidity & income

What a rate move does — and where the cash is.

Rate-shock impact

Est. market-value change at ±100 / ±200 bps (duration ≈ 2.0 yr × $10.6B)

From the pool's reported effective duration (1.55 yr at 3/31/26) × value. Agency-callable convexity would dampen the upside; precise key-rate impacts need holdings-level data.

Maturity ladder

Share maturing in each band (FY2024 audited)

Income decomposition

FY2024 total investment income, $M


Lens 6 · The recommendation, in action

Total return vs. a duration-matched index — the metric the County should report.

Here is the missing number, reconstructed: the pool's estimated total return (income + price change) against the ICE BofA 1–3yr U.S. Treasury index. The story it tells is the opposite of damaging — book yield understated the pool in FY24–FY25, the longer-duration posture has been paying off, and the FY22 drawdown shows honestly. That is exactly why the County should publish it.

Book return vs. estimated total return vs. duration-matched index

Annual %, fiscal year. Total return and the ≈fiscal-year index are HSG reconstructions (reported book values, market values, and the ICE BofA 1–3yr Treasury index); the recommendation is for the County to compute and report this directly.


The bottom line

A reporting-completeness scorecard.

Of the forty-one ways to measure this pool, the County's reporting is actually relatively strong — it publishes book yield, effective duration, WAM, unrealized gain/loss, NAV, and credit quality. The decisive gap is the one metric no peer pool publishes either: a mark-to-market total return against a named index. Closing it is the heart of the recommendation.

Performance, told completely — not just conveniently.

Every measure on this page is reproducible from the public record. The County's report shows a handful; an independent evaluation shows them all — and reconciles them.

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